'%3e%3cpath%20d='M5.33809%207.48826C5.43809%207.53825%205.80682%207.732%206.44429%208.06948C7.08802%208.41322%207.77705%208.78351%208.51139%209.18037C9.24574%209.57723%209.91915%209.94128%2010.5316%2010.2725C11.1503%2010.6038%2011.4847%2010.7881%2011.5347%2010.8256C11.6347%2010.8881%2011.7503%2010.9256%2011.8816%2010.9381C12.0128%2010.9506%2012.1472%2010.9569%2012.2847%2010.9569C12.4159%2010.9569%2012.5472%2010.9428%2012.6784%2010.9147C12.8097%2010.8866%2012.9253%2010.8569%2013.0253%2010.8256C13.0815%2010.7881%2013.4159%2010.6038%2014.0283%2010.2725C14.6408%209.94128%2015.3158%209.57723%2016.0533%209.18037C16.7907%208.78351%2017.4782%208.41322%2018.1157%208.06948C18.7532%207.732%2019.1219%207.53825%2019.2219%207.48826C19.4281%207.38201%2019.5859%207.20702%2019.6953%206.96328C19.8047%206.71954%2019.6719%206.59767%2019.2969%206.59767H5.33809C4.96311%206.59767%204.8178%206.71954%204.90217%206.96328C4.98654%207.20702%205.13185%207.38201%205.33809%207.48826ZM19.4281%209.11944C19.3094%209.18819%2018.925%209.39443%2018.275%209.73816C17.6251%2010.0819%2016.9267%2010.4491%2016.1798%2010.8397C15.433%2011.2303%2014.7408%2011.5881%2014.1033%2011.9131C13.4721%2012.2381%2013.1128%2012.4193%2013.0253%2012.4568C12.894%2012.5255%2012.7706%2012.5646%2012.655%2012.574C12.5393%2012.5834%2012.4159%2012.588%2012.2847%2012.588C12.1472%2012.588%2012.0222%2012.5834%2011.9097%2012.574C11.7972%2012.5646%2011.6722%2012.5255%2011.5347%2012.4568C11.466%2012.4193%2011.116%2012.2381%2010.4847%2011.9131C9.85353%2011.5881%209.16449%2011.2303%208.41765%2010.8397C7.6708%2010.4491%206.9724%2010.0819%206.32242%209.73816C5.6787%209.39443%205.30372%209.18819%205.19747%209.11944C5.02873%209.05069%204.93029%209.05069%204.90217%209.11944C4.87405%209.18819%204.85999%209.25693%204.85999%209.32568C4.85999%209.35693%204.85999%209.69129%204.85999%2010.3288C4.85999%2010.9662%204.85999%2011.6584%204.85999%2012.4052C4.85999%2013.1521%204.85999%2013.8349%204.85999%2014.4536C4.85999%2015.0723%204.85999%2015.3817%204.85999%2015.3817C4.85999%2015.5504%204.95373%2015.7285%205.14122%2015.916C5.32872%2016.1035%205.50683%2016.1973%205.67558%2016.1973H18.8844C19.0531%2016.1973%2019.2313%2016.1035%2019.4187%2015.916C19.6062%2015.7285%2019.7%2015.5504%2019.7%2015.3817C19.7%2015.3817%2019.7%2015.0723%2019.7%2014.4536C19.7%2013.8349%2019.7%2013.1521%2019.7%2012.4052C19.7%2011.6584%2019.7%2010.9662%2019.7%2010.3288C19.7%209.69129%2019.7%209.35693%2019.7%209.32568C19.7%209.25693%2019.689%209.18819%2019.6672%209.11944C19.6453%209.05069%2019.5656%209.05069%2019.4281%209.11944Z'%20fill='%23C0C0C0'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_195_5213'%3e%3crect%20width='14.84'%20height='10'%20fill='white'%20transform='matrix(1%200%200%20-1%204.85999%2016.2002)'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e)
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M17.8486%206.15625H12.8799C12.6299%206.15625%2012.3643%206.31771%2012.083%206.64062C11.8018%206.96354%2011.6611%207.38542%2011.6611%207.90625V11.625H17.8486V16.9375H11.6611V32.6562H5.62988V16.9375H0.161133V11.625H5.62988V8.625C5.62988%207.52083%205.81738%206.47917%206.19238%205.5C6.54655%204.54167%207.04134%203.70312%207.67676%202.98438C8.31217%202.26562%209.0778%201.69792%209.97363%201.28125C10.8486%200.864584%2011.8174%200.65625%2012.8799%200.65625H17.8486V6.15625Z'%20fill='%23324A80'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_195_10209'%3e%3crect%20width='17.69'%20height='32'%20fill='white'%20transform='matrix(1%200%200%20-1%200.159912%2032)'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e)
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M12.4047%208.96665L19.8513%200.49707H18.0873L11.6187%207.84959L6.456%200.49707H0.5L8.30867%2011.6164L0.5%2020.497H2.264L9.09067%2012.7308L14.544%2020.497H20.5M2.90067%201.79865H5.61067L18.086%2019.2594H15.3753'%20fill='%23000'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_341_1924'%3e%3crect%20width='20'%20height='20'%20fill='%23000'%20transform='translate(0.5%200.49707)'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e)
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M8.125%204.125C8.125%205.10417%207.78646%205.92708%207.10938%206.59375C6.43229%207.26042%205.55208%207.59375%204.46875%207.59375C3.38542%207.59375%202.5%207.26042%201.8125%206.59375C1.125%205.92708%200.78125%205.10417%200.78125%204.125C0.78125%203.14583%201.125%202.32292%201.8125%201.65625C2.5%200.989584%203.38542%200.65625%204.46875%200.65625C5.55208%200.65625%206.43229%200.989584%207.10938%201.65625C7.78646%202.32292%208.125%203.14583%208.125%204.125ZM1%2032.6562V10.4062H7.90625V32.6562H1ZM12.0312%2017.3125C12.0312%2015.9167%2012.0208%2014.6198%2012%2013.4219C11.9792%2012.224%2011.9167%2011.1458%2011.8125%2010.1875H17.875L18.0938%2013.4375H18.2812C18.7188%2012.6667%2019.526%2011.8594%2020.7031%2011.0156C21.8802%2010.1719%2023.3854%209.75%2025.2188%209.75C26.3438%209.75%2027.3958%209.9375%2028.375%2010.3125C29.3542%2010.7083%2030.2031%2011.2969%2030.9219%2012.0781C31.6406%2012.8594%2032.1979%2013.8438%2032.5938%2015.0312C33.0104%2016.2396%2033.2188%2017.6458%2033.2188%2019.25V32.4375H26.2812V20.3438C26.2812%2018.9271%2026.0052%2017.7812%2025.4531%2016.9062C24.901%2016.0312%2024.0312%2015.5938%2022.8438%2015.5938C21.8646%2015.4896%2021.0573%2015.6979%2020.4219%2016.2188C19.7865%2016.7396%2019.3646%2017.3229%2019.1562%2017.9688C19.0521%2018.1771%2018.9896%2018.4375%2018.9688%2018.75C18.9479%2019.0625%2018.9375%2019.375%2018.9375%2019.6875V32.4375H12.0312V17.3125Z'%20fill='%230077B5'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_195_10215'%3e%3crect%20width='32.44'%20height='32'%20fill='white'%20transform='matrix(1%200%200%20-1%200.780029%2032)'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e)
France10 juin 2012
Excès de confiance ?
Législatives : tout pourrait bien se jouer sur l’abstention
Avec la modification du seuil de maintien au second tour (12,5% des inscrits au 1er tour), le niveau de l'abstention devient déterminant pour anticiper le nombre de triangulaires où le FN est un danger pour l'UMP. Les analyses de Bruno Jembar (OpinionWay) et Jérôme Sainte-Marie (CSA).
